PAS has crossed the Rubicon
Political analyst Abdul Aziz Bari today predicted that PAS will soon be hit by a political tsunami which was started by party spiritual leader Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat, known as 'Tok Guru'.
A tsunami, Abdul Aziz implied, which will bring significant changes to the Islamic party and its leadership line-up.
"The die is cast. Tok Guru has made his stand clear and whatever happens tomorrow, change will take place. It is inevitable. Either within this immediate future or in the next party elections," said the political analyst.
Abdul Aziz said that, that when reference is made to the current PAS senior leadership, "We are dealing with politicians here who are NOT that influential".
- PAS secretary-general Mustafa Ali, he explained, LOST in the Alor Limbat state seat, long considered a PAS stronghold, which speaks volumes of Mustafa's influence at the moment.
- The situation is no different with deputy president Nasharuddin Mat Isa and Selangor commissioner Hassan Ali, said Abdul Aziz who pointed out that even president Hadi Awang had to struggle to win the Marang parliamentary seat and lost Terengganu in 2004.
Elaborating further, he said,
"We know that the PAS organization in Terengganu - under both Hadi and Mustafa - is in a mess.
Nasha does not have any grassroots. He is from Negri Sembilan and has been given seats by Kedah and Kelantan. He has not been serving the constituencies and this makes him unpopular".
Compare this, said Abdul Aziz, with the fact that the grassroots and the sympathizers are solidly behind Tok Guru who has managed to retain his seat and keep Kelantan in PAS control since 1990.
So wide spread is Tok Guru's influence, Abdul Aziz explained, that "Tok Guru is seen as someone pious not just by PAS but even by Umno members in Kelantan".
Any comparison between 'Tok Guru' Hadi and 'Tok Guru' Nik Aziz is a mistake, claimed the political analyst.
"Hadi is nowhere near him; indeed it is an insult to compare him with Tok Guru."
While many may tend to underestimate the mild mannered Kelantan MB, Abdul Aziz reminded everyone, "Don't underestimate Tok Guru. Time and again he has proved himself to be a wily politician".
'No split or splinter in PAS'
Commenting on some analysis of a possible splinter party to be formed or a split in PAS, Abdul Aziz says, "I don't agree. History, as well as, the situation at the moment simply state otherwise. There is no indication that a splinter party would emerge or that the party will split".
Even if a split or splinter were to occur, Abdul Aziz pointed out, that PAS splinter parties all died a premature and untimely death like Berjasa in the 70s and Hamim in the 80s.
The political analyst also explained that "All the PAS leaders who left the party or joined Umno did not survive long and even Umno did not bother to look after them".
He named Othman Abdullah in 1960s, Mohamed Nasir in late 1970s, Asri Muda in early 1980s and Nakhaie Ahmad (former sectary general) in mid 1980s, as examples.
More over, Abdul Aziz explained, "PAS is a party with ideology. It is not a pragmatic party like Umno where the members gather around leaders. And of course they now see the danger sign that the party is losing ground".
This, he says, will squarely pit the present leadership, Hadi (right) & Co, against the members, many of whom find Hadi's complicity in the pro-Umno issue as simply unforgivable.
Abdul Aziz further claimed that Umno's media in attacking Tok Guru and its apparent support of Hadi & Co will backfire and expose them as "the weak bunch of men" that they are, as it reinforces Tok Guru's strength.
The bottom line here, according to the political analyst, is that there is nothing to stop the move started by Tok Guru.
"I do not see how the problematic leaders can contain it. What's more is when the public is behind Tok Guru. Change is simply a matter of survival for PAS," concluded Abdul Aziz.