Manek Urai By-Election Results: PAS Has Some SERIOUS House Cleaning To DO

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Quote:

"...PAS will certainly have to do a serious amount of soul-searching after this.

Moderate voices in PAS may claim that the poor performance of PAS was precisely the result of some of the conservative leaders playing into the hands of UMNO and engaging in the ‘Unity talks’.

If PAS is to repeat the same moves that were made in the 1970s when it actually joined the Barisan National (when PAS was under the leadership of Asri Muda) then PAS would be NO different from UMNO.

If PAS and UMNO are about to wed, then where lies the difference between them, and how can one choose between them? That thought might have been on the minds of many of the voters who cast their votes on that fateful day.

The conservatives may argue that PAS would have won bigger had it remained closer to its fundamental Islamist agenda rather than jumping into bed with the liberal-democrats of PKR and the secular leftists of DAP and PSM. They will, no doubt, claim that the poor showing at Manek Urai was not their fault and that this is the indirect result of PAS being too subservient to the agenda of the Pakatan instead.

At present, both these interpretations are open and both seem equally plausible.

The political landscape of Malaysia has changed with the new administration at the Federal level.

(Past) four years of sniping at an ineffective government (2004-2008) now has to be replaced with a cold and calculated approach to governance and the determination NOT to let the achievements of March 2008 fade away.

The Opposition (should not be) wasting its time fighting against itself and showing precious little sign of unity and cohesion of purpose, precisely when it is needed most.

Failure to unite on a series of clearly-defined programmes will be detrimental to the PR at this point, as will the failure to take Najib seriously..."
-Dr. Farish Noor

Or was it the BRIDGE promised by BN/UMNO which wooed a significant number of the Manek Urai voters to BN/UMNO for this by-election, as local wisdom among Manek Urai residents believe is the case. (Read here)

Deputy UMNO President Muhyiddin Yassin on July 12 had told Manek Urai voters that should they back BN/UMNO, he would build the 300-metre bridge connecting Manek Urai Baru and Manek Urai Lama in Kuala Krai.

A significant number of previous PAS voters said "YES, ... for now, give us the bridge you had promised."

With only 65 votes loss, will BN/UMNO still build the promised bridge? For that, those PAS voters who voted BN/UMNO in this by-election will have to wait to see.

However, knowing the fiercely independent spirit of Kelantanese, it is still an open question whether BN/UMNO can still win over voters in PAS's stronghold of Manek Urai in the NEXT General Election.

Or is it that rural and religious KELANTANESE MALAYS, after all what has been said about them, can now also be bribed and bought in an election?
-Malaysian Unplug

POLL from Anil Netto's Blog

What's the reason for Pas' reduced majority?

1. Pas' flirtation with Umno (37%, 157 Votes)
   
   
2. BN's promises of development (21%, 89 Votes)
   
   
3. Bickering among Pakatan parties (16%, 68 Votes)
   
   
4. Factionalism within Pas (15%, 64 Votes)
   
   
5. Other reasons (10%, 44 Votes)
   
   
6. Not sure (1%, 6 Votes)
   
   Click here for more

PAS has retained the Manek Urai state seat by a wafer-thin margin of 65, or 0.61 per cent of votes cast, despite earlier predictions of a thumping win for the Islamist party.

PAS polled 5,348 against Umno’s 5,283.

Tonight’s results will help STRENGTHEN Datuk Nik Abdul Aziz Nik Mat’s position in the Islamist party AGAINST rival factions who are keen on working more closely with Umno.

PAS was wracked by infighting between the so-called Erdogans who were backed by Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat and the ulama faction of party president Hadi Awang.

In this round BN picked a fight with a Kelantan icon – Nik Aziz – and lost. Calling him names and disparaging him during the campaign only led to a higher turnout of more than 1,300 outstation voters.

There is little doubt that the OUTSTATION votes saved the day for PAS.

The REASONS for the REDUCED MAJORITY by PAS
(They Give Lip-Service to Subvert PAS's Objective ( and Pakatan Rakyat's)
to Win National Government from UMNO in Next General Election)

Last year the party defeated Barisan Nasional (BN) by 1,352 votes.

The close win by PAS in this year's by-election showed PAS had just managed to fend off an onslaught from the BN and Umno machinery bent on taking full advantage of schisms in the Islamist party and among its Pakatan Rakyat (PR) partners.

The close results will give PR some breathing space as it attempts to consolidate after a month which saw the alliance partners openly squabbling with each other over various issues.

Another lesson to be drawn from the tiny majority is the fact that if PR wants to be taken seriously as a real alternative to BN, it will have to come up soon with a COMMON platform and policies.

The recent squabbling has had an effect on how voters perceive the federal opposition alliance.

But just as BN received a bloody nose in last year’s general elections, PAS and PR also got a bruising and escaped by the skin of their teeth.

Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) deputy president Dr Syed Hussin Ali said although PAS won by a narrow margin, there was every reason for PKR to rejoice as it was a victory for Pakatan Rakyat.

Meanwhile, Kelantan PAS deputy commissioner III Datuk Husam Musa alleged that the reduced majority for its victory was due to BN practising money politics.

COMMENTARY

The Two-Sided Implications of Manek Urai

by

Farish A. Noor

Excerpts: Read here for more

A victory by a margin of 65 votes hardly counts as a triumph by any stretch of the imagination. The taste of the victory has to be a bitter one at best.

UMNO's defeat has been cushioned by the realisation that the voters of Malek Urai were almost entirely divided on the issue of which was the better party to choose.

There are, however several conclusions that can be drawn from this latest development in the saga of Malaysia’s convoluted politics, and they are as follows:

PM Najib's Policy Changes

By touching the right buttons and by taking up some of the causes that were made public by the opposition, the BN government has not only anticipated the mood of the public and their wants, but are in a position to deliver the goods thanks to the position they hold at the Federal level.

The plans to scrap the teaching of Maths and Science in English, the liberalisation of the economy, the gradual dismantling of some of the structures of the NEP; were all issues raised by parties like PAS and DAP, but have now been taken up by UMNO and the BN instead.

It is significant that Najib’s popularity rating has risen 20 points to 65 per cent; but more significantly, his popularity among Malay-Muslim Malaysians has passed the 70 per cent mark.

Implications and consequences for PAS and the PR in the short to medium term?

1. Moderate voices in PAS may claim that the poor performance of PAS was precisely the result of some of the conservative leaders playing into the hands of UMNO and engaging in the ‘Unity talks’.
   
   Should PAS make these tentative gestures of appeasement to UMNO, and if PAS is to repeat the same moves that were made in the 1970s when it actually joined the Barisan National (when PAS was under the leadership of Asri Muda) then PAS would be NO different from UMNO.
   
   For the moderates, this may explain the results of the votes, on the basis of the argument that PAS’s courtship of UMNO has actually blurred the distinction between the two parties. Indeed this might account for why the votes were so close, with such a paper-thin margin of difference.
   
   After all, if PAS and UMNO are about to wed, then where lies the difference between them, and how can one choose between them? That thought might have been on the minds of many of the voters who cast their votes on that fateful day.
   
   
2. The results would be to blame the dismal performance of PAS on the bold initiatives that were foregrounded by the moderate ‘Erdogan’ faction of the party leadership.
   
   The critics of the moderates have claimed that by their tacit and explicit commitment to the Pakatan and the goal of a plural democratic Malaysia they have undermined the Islamist basis of PAS.
   
   Some of the more vocal members of the conservative camp have made it clear that they are unwilling to go along blindly with the PR bandwagon, and have expressed their distaste for some of the principles that the Pakatan stands for, including freedom of belief, the right for citizens to have a private space, a neutral public domain free of moral policing etc.
   
   These are the same conservative voices that have called for the ban on the sale of alcohol to Muslims in Selangor, the banning of Sisters in Islam, the enforcement of morality laws and moral policing in society etc.
   
   The conservatives may argue that PAS would have won bigger had it remained closer to its fundamental Islamist agenda rather than jumping into bed with the liberal-democrats of PKR and the secular leftists of DAP and PSM. They will, no doubt, claim that the poor showing at Manek Urai was not their fault and that this is the indirect result of PAS being too subservient to the agenda of the Pakatan instead.

At present, both these interpretations are open and both seem equally plausible. PAS will certainly have to do a serious amount of soul-searching after this, but one hopes that that endeavour will be guided by reason and objectivity, rather than degenerating into a blame-game where both sides of the conservative-moderate divide accuse each other of letting the side down.

It is imperative at the present moment to recognise that the political landscape of Malaysia has changed with the new administration at the Federal level, and that four years of sniping at an ineffective government (2004-2008) now has to be replaced with a cold and calculated approach to governance and the determination not to let the achievements of March 2008 fade away.

Until that realism comes, PAS and the Pakatan will have to swallow the bitter pill and digest the fact that if they do not pull themselves together, the results of March 2008 will not be repeated again.

What OTHER Experts Say

Read here for more in malaysiakini

Shamsul Amri Baharuddin:
The slim majority reflects that in the PAS heartland there is something good that Najib is offering. Local issues are not dominant any more. If it was, then PAS would have won with a bigger majority. Coming fresh out of the Merdeka Center poll, people feel good about Najib's performance as prime minister. Even if they do support PAS, they get nothing effective in return.

Khoo Kay Kim:
Given the opportunities the Opposition was given, they have done nothing to look after the people. Day and night, they are quarrelling about issues that should have been discussed before the alliance was formed. Look at what Najib is saying, it sounds good and all he need is to line up the right people, and the reliable people he takes on would be able to help him establish good grounds. All the infighting in Pakatan looks bad in the eyes of the public and the people are aware that they are not thinking of the public as each of them have their own agendas.

James Chin:
It cannot be seen as a 'yes' or 'no' for Najib's leadership because Kelantanese politics is very localised and Najib's (promises and policies) are national factors.The results are similar to the results in 2004. PAS only won with a majority of 53 then. The factor that could have caused the effect is probably money. The people were promised of a new bridge if BN won. But a slim win is still a win, although the margin is small. So there is nothing for BN to celebrate, this is simply the reaffirmation of the results in 2004.

PAS akan lakukan post-mortem

Read here for more

Local Opinion Says UMNO's Promised Bridge Did It

The word amongst Manek Urai voters going to the ballot box is this: " We'll take the bridge promised by BN/UMNO... for now."

Pengarah Pilihan Raya PAS Pusat, Dato Abdul Halim Abdul Rahman berkata, beberapa faktor antaranya janji untuk menyediakan jambatan baru di Manek Urai dan sogokan wang boleh mempengaruhi sikap pengundi luar.

"Namun saya ingin sampaikan tahniah kepada kebijaksanaan penduduk Manek Urai yang berjaya mempertahankan kerusi tersebut," kata beliau ketika ditemui selepas pengisytiharan kemenangan Mohd Fauzi Abdullah di Dewan Sekolah Sultan Yahya Petra.

Menurutnya janji yang ditaburkan Umno pada saat-saat akhir belum mampu memikat keseluruhan pengundi di Manek Urai.

Beliau juga berkata kemenangan tipis bukan satu persoalan memandangkan ia pernah berlaku di Pulai Chondong pada pilihan raya kecil yang diadakan sebelum ini.

"Ia juga ada kaitan dengan sikap SPR yang mengadakan pengundian pada hari kerja dan kepulangan pengundi luar walaupun ramai namun ada yang terpengaruh dengan janji dan sogokan wang," katanya.

Anggota jawatankuasa PAS Pusat, Dr Dzulkifli Ahmad berkata, terlalu banyak janji yang ditabur Umno di Manek Urai, namun kesetiaan kepada konsep Membangun Bersama Islam tetap dipertahankan.

Beliau yang juga anggota Parlimen Kuala Selangor berkata, PAS berdepan dengan seluruh jentera kerajaan.