Wednesday 15 July 2009

UPDATED! Fall Out from Manek Urai By-Election: The Finger Points to PAS Terengganu Pro-UMNO Faction

Read here commentary in malaysiakini


PAS' narrow 65-vote victory in Manek Urai was a surprise, since most analysts were expecting a more comfortable PAS victory, albeit one with the reduced majority compared to the 2008 results.

WHERE PAS LOST: SK (Saluran Kecil)
  1. SK Temalir - 983 Voters : LOST by 27 votes

  2. SK Laloh - 1,643 Voters: LOST by 66 votes

  3. SK Manek Urai Lama - 1,890 Voters: LOST by 184 votes

  4. SK Manek Urai Baru - 1,093 Voters: LOST by 34 votes

  5. SK Kampung Karangan - 1,049 Voters: LOST by 66 Votes
  1. SK Sungai Sok - 980 Voters: WON by 66 votes

  2. SK Chuchoh Puteri - 1,517 Voters: WON by 96 votes

  3. SK Lata Rek - 1,094 Voters: WON by 258 votes

  4. SK Peria - 2,019 Voters: WON by 86 votes

The 'saluran' or polling stream results show that BN made headway against PAS in ALL areas including splitting the vote almost 50/50 among the younger voters.

PAS (under President Hadi Awang) must take the lion's share of the blame for the steep loss in support that almost cost it the seat.

The PAS Trengganu Pro-UMNO 'Unity Talks" Faction

The proposed unity talks between PAS and Umno made PAS LESS distinctive, CONFUSED the voters and gave UMNO an increased sense of legitimacy which no doubt contributed to the BN's increase in vote share in Manek Urai.

The pro-unity faction within PAS, led by Abdul Hadi Awang, Nasharuddin Mat Isa and Mustafa Ali, would no doubt blame the ineffectiveness of two of the Erdogan faction's leaders, Tok Guru Nik Aziz Nik Mat and Husam Musa, to protect the electoral turf on their own backyard in Kelantan

The PAS Terengganu "Pro-UMNO" Faction

Nik Aziz and Husam will counter by accusing the pro-unity faction of giving Umno the opportunity to exploit the schism within PAS using the fa├žade of unity talks.

If the leaders of the pro-unity faction could NOT see the electoral harm of having or even proposing talks with Umno BEFORE Manek Urai, it is hard to see how this would have changed their minds.

The pro-unity faction will use this by-election result to further their claim that working with Umno is inevitable instead of realising the need to distance itself from their political enemies.

The IRONY of attacking Nik Aziz and Husam on the grounds of losing support in their own back yard should be apparent to PAS watchers.

The two leaders most associated with the pro-unity faction –
Hadi Awang and Mustafa Ali – were instrumental in engineering a precipitous DECLINE in PAS' electoral performance in Terengganu.

The Failure of PAS Trengganu to Win State Government

PAS in Terengganu under the duo experienced a 14% decline in its share of popular vote from 1999 to 2004 which resulted in PAS losing 24 out of the 28 state seats it won in 1999 and subsequently lost control of the state legislature. PAS in Kelantan under Nik Aziz, experienced a smaller decline of 10% in its share of popular vote and managed to retain control of the state assembly by three seats.

In the 2008 elections,
PAS in Kelantan increased its vote share by 5% and won 39 out of 45 state seats .

PAS in Terengganu only managed to increase its votes share by 1% and only won eight out of 32 state seats.

If electoral performance is to be used as the yardstick to gauge the political effectiveness of a leader, Hadi should have been relieved of his position as PAS president a long time ago.

Not only was the
Teregganu faction in PAS' leadership responsible for PAS losing ground in their home state (Terengganu) , there were also responsible in hastily passing the hudud legislation which they knew had no chance of being implemented. This was one of the key decisions which eventually led to DAP leaving the then opposition coalition, Barisan Alternatif.

The political moves made by Hadi Awang have clearly been found to be wanting. His continued insistence of unity talks with Umno also does not make political sense as Manek Urai has shown.

Not only will it lose PAS much-needed Malay votes, it is arguable that
if PAS had contested in a more ethnically 'mixed' seat, it would have found that it has lost ground among the non-Malay voters as well who voted for PAS in large numbers in 2008 precisely on the grounds that it was not Umno. And yet, three of the top PAS leaders – its President (Hadi Awang), its Deputy President (Nasharudin Mat Isa) and its Secretary-General (Mustapha Ali)– are said to be in the pro-unity faction.

Future of PAS under Hadi Awang in Pakatan Rakyat

Some Pakatan Rakyat supporters would no doubt be hoping that this near lost would lead to a closing of the ranks among the PAS leaders.

It seems that the schism between the Erdogans and the pro-unity faction, already very obvious before and during the Manek Urai campaign, will only grow as the finger pointing between the two sides escalates.

With these leaders occupying the top spots in PAS hierarchy, it seems likely that the PRO-UNITY faction within PAS may prevail over the Erdogans.

If this occurs, it seems almost inevitable that PAS will leave Pakatan and join the BN with perhaps the Erdogan faction leaving PAS to form a new political party.

After all, why go through the motions of unity talks and suffer the electoral consequences, if you are not willing to go all the way of actually forming some sort of unity government?

If this occurs, PAS will slowly but surely degenerate into a shadow of its former self as it becomes less and less distinguishable from Umno.

It is hard for me to see how the conflict within PAS can have a positive ending. Internal conflict that threatens to be a public civil war rarely results in positive endings for all the parties involved.

The silver lining in this dark cloud for Pakatan and PAS is that there is a while yet before the next general election is due.

A majority of the PAS grassroots seem to be against any unity talks with Umno.

If the rank-and-file within PAS can show their support for Nik Aziz and the PAS faction that is firmly against any sort of cooperation with Umno, perhaps PAS and by extension, Pakatan can be saved.


N41 Manek Urai - PAS Nyaris-nyaris Tersungkur....

Read here in Tumpang Sekole blog for more

Menurut sumber-sumber tedekat PAS hanya mempunyai kira-kira 700 ahli di Manek Urai dengan UMNO mempunyai lebih 4,000 ahli. Kemungkinan besar, kali ini lebih ramai ahli-ahli UMNO keluar mengundi berbanding pada tahun 2008 dan ditambah dengan 398 yang dulu sokong PAS, sekarang beralih angin menjadi punca bertambahnya undi untuk UMNO. Jadi UMNO jangan dok syiok sangat konon-konon pengundi Melayu sudah berpatah balik.

Apa-apa pun UMNO tetap kalah tak kiralah berapa undi. Professor-professor kangkong akan buat ulasan yang panjang lebar, kononnya orang-orang Melayu dah berduyun-duyun berpatah balik ke UMNO,kerana kepimpinan Najib. Betoi kah?

Kalau orang Melayu berpatah balik ke UMNO kerana apa?...... duit, kekayaan,pangkat..... atau kerana pertelingkahan antara gulongan konservatif dan gulongan Erdogan dalam PAS atau kerana ahli-ahli PAS kurang selesa dengan rakan-rakan dalam Pakatan Rakyat?

Kalau begitu apakah dengan sokongan yang UMNO dapat ini akan membuatkan UMNO lebih berani untuk membubarkan DUN Perak kerana bagi UMNO kemenangan tipis PAS itu menandakan bahawa rakyat khususnya orang Melayu sudah berpatah balik kepada UMNO?

Dulu Kata Letak Kayu pun Umno Menang!

Read here for more in Penarik Beca Blog


Kali terakhir PAS menang pilihan raya kecil di Kelantan ialah dalam pilihan raya Pulai Chondong pada 7 Januari 1997.

    Calon PAS, Zulkefli Mamat memperolehi 4,778 undi menewaskan calon Barisan Nasional (BN), Yusoff Hamzah yang mendapat 4,660 undi.

    Zulkefli (PAS) adalah bekas pensyarah Institut Teknologi Mara (ITM) Kelantan.Yusoff (BN) adalah bekas Timbalan Pengurus Besar Lembaga Kemajuan Kelantan Selatan (Kesedar).

    Bagaimanapun, PAS mengemukakan calon yang TIDAK dihina pekerjaannya.

    Menang dengan majoriti tipis sebanyak 118 undi sahaja.

    Kira-kira kira-kira 75.43 peratus pengundi keluar mengundi.

    Sama seperti calon yang dikemukakan dalam pilihan raya kecil Manek Urai semalam, BN pada masa itu juga mengemukakan yang terbaik dan hebat di mata rakyat.

    Pulai Chondong adalah kubu tradisi BN sejak 1959 sehinggalah dikuasai Parti Semangat 46 pada pilihan raya umum 1990.


    Selepas itu, dalam pilihan raya kecil Semerak pada 11 Ogos 1997, PAS KALAH lagi.

    Calon BN, Datuk Kamaruddin Mohd Noor menewaskan calon PAS, Wan Fauzi Wan Hussain.

    Kamaruddin berjaya mendapat 5,370 undi untuk meraih majoriti 778 undi menewaskan Wan Fauzi yang mendapat 4592 undi.

    Pilihan raya tersebut memperlihatkan jumlah keluar mengundi terbesar di dalam sejarah pilihan raya di negara sejak pilihan raya pertama diadakan, iaitu 82.42 peratus daripada 12,342 orang pengundi.


    Kekalahan PAS dalam pilihan raya kecil di Kelantan berulang lagi dalam pilihan raya kecil Pengkalan Pasir 6 Disember 2005.

    Dalam pilihan raya tersebut, calon PAS Hanifa Ahmad hanya mendapat 7,290 undi dan tewas kepada calon BN, Hanafi Mamat yang mendapat 7,419 undi. Majoriti yang diperolehi oleh Hanafi ialah 129 undi.

    Dalam pilihan raya itu, calon yang dianggap boleh menang bila-bila masa di Pasir Mas, Datuk Ibrahim Ali hanya mendapat 414 undi sahaja dan hilang wang pertaruhan. Ibrahim adalah antara hulubalang utama Umno dalam pilihan raya kecil Manek Urai baru-baru ini.

    Sama seperti yang berlaku dalam pilihan raya kecil Pulai Chondong, calon PAS dalam pilihan raya Semerak dan Pengkalan Pasir tidak dihina pekerjaannya.


    Kali ini, calon terbaik Umno tumpas di kaki seorang pak lebai kampung yang dihina pekerjaan halalnya.

    Berbeza dengan ketiga-tiga calon PAS dalam pilihan raya kecil di Kelantan itu, calon PAS dalam pilihan raya kecil Manek Urai, Mohd Fauzi Abdullah terpaksa berhadapan dengan ayat-ayat cela terhadap pekerjaannya sebagai peraih ikan (peraih ikan adalah istilah yang digunakan untuk pemborong ikan di Kelantan).

    Perkataan seperti bahaya dan terseleweng digunakan untuk menolak Fauzi. Pada 28 Jun lalu, Malaysiakini melaporkan Timbalan Perdana Menteri yang juga Timbalan Presiden Umno, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin berkata:
    "Calon kita nak bela umat Islam dan bawa obor perpaduan. Beliau seorang yang berpengalaman, ada rekod kerja yang baik di sini, bukan seorang penjual ikan, dan berkelulusan tinggi.

    Penting untuk pilih calon yang berilmu kerana dialah yang nak bimbing masyarakat di sini, tak ada ilmu bahaya kerana mungkin dia terseleweng".

Kenyataan itu tanpa berselindung menggambarkan bahawa memilih penjual ikan yang tidak berkelulusan tinggi mengundang bahaya kerana "mungkin dia terseleweng".

Selepas itu, pada 2 Julai, Ketua Penerangan Umno Ahmad Maslan menggambarkan PAS memperlekehkan mentaliti penduduk Manek Urai kerana memilih pemborong ikan sebagai calon.

Pada 6 Julai pula, Pengerusi Badan Perhubungan Umno Kelantan Datuk Mustapa Mohamed berkata, berkata calon BN, Tuan Aziz Tuan Mat, adalah bekas seorang pegawai Kesedar, manakala lawannya Mohd Fauzi Abdullah dari Pas adalah seorang pemborong ikan.

Di samping bersikap sinis terhadap pekerjaan Fauzi, Umno terus meratib-ratib bahawa mereka meletakkan calon terbaik. Diriuh-rendahkan bahawa Tuan Aziz adalah Pengurus Pemantauan dan Penyelarasan Program Kesedar. Bingitlah Manek Urai dan satu Malaysia dengan tayangan kehebatan Tuan Aziz yang memiliki Ijazah Sarjana Muda Pengurusan Teknologi dari Universiti Teknologi Malaysia.

Mereka fikir penghinaan itu dihempuk ke atas kepala Fauzi sahaja. Mereka tidak sedar ramai yang merasa terhina termasuk aku yang tak mengaji ni. Awat? Mentang-mentang aku ni tak dak pelajaran, hampa ingat hampa boleh pedajai aku dengan ayat demi ayat yang sarkastik tu?

Berapa pun majoriti yang diperolehi Fauzi yang dihina pekerjaannya, ia tetap mengalahkan Tuan Aziz yang terbaik serta hebat dari segi kelulusan dan pengalaman.

Setelah PAS Kelantan tidak pernah menang pilihan raya kecil di negeri itu sejak kira-kira 12 tahun lalu, akhirnya ia menang juga. Lantak pi lah majoriti seciput mana pun.

Dulu kalah sekarang menang.

Umno mungkin melihat majoriti PAS yang dikurangkan itu sebagai petanda akan bersinarnya cahaya di hujung lubang gelap. Tak kisah. Silakan berpesta.

Bagi orang-orang tak mengaji seperti saya, kekalahan BN di Manek Urai memperlihatkan permulaan kehancuran kepercayaan yang dibagakkan oleh Umno selama ini.

Orang-orang Umno sebelum ini selalu berkata, kalau kami letak kayu sekalipun, BN tetap menang. Begitu tebal kepercayaan itu di dalam jiwa mereka.

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